Next six months vital for economic recovery- experts

Next six months vital for economic recovery: experts

HÀ NỘI — Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính chaired a webinar discussing Việt Nam's measures in boosting post-pandemic economic recovery, adapting to the COVID- 一 九 pandemic, overcoming economic disruption and strengthening locality-to-locality connectivity on Wednesday.

During the webinar, business leaders and experts said that over the past year, Việt Nam has managed to contain the pandemic and maintained socio-economic development.

Foreign experts and representatives of international organisations in Việt Nam expressed their optimism about the country's development prospects.

"Despite the shortage of global vaccine supply, Việt Nam has managed to get a significant amount of vaccines to provide cover for nearly  六0 per cent of the population with at least one dose of vaccine, and the government is now working on a post-COVID economic recovery plan," said Andrew Jeffries, Country Director for Việt Nam, Asian Development Bank.

The country's speedy vaccination drive plays a big role in reassuring investors and encouraging investments. 

"There is sufficient fiscal space as the debt level is only about  五 六 per cent of GDP and has only marginally increased in the past year, while revenue collection has been performing relatively well,"大众said Carolyn Turk, WB Country Director for Việt Nam. 

"This is very welcome as it will substantially reduce unnecessary burdens on people and businesses, as well as uncertainty and we know that investors – domestic and FDI – are reacting well to more predictability in the environment," said Turk.

Choi Joo Ho, President of Samsung Việt Nam, said the South Korean corporation has been working closely with the central and local government to identify and resolves issues that hindered operations to ensure uninterrupted production in its factories. 

The next six months

The pandemic remains complicated and unpredictable and the country is facing a wide range of heavy consequences in all aspects of socio-economic life.

"Because the country’s fundamentals are solid, we remain optimistic about the longer-term growth trajectory. Yet, the future will be partially determined by what the government is going to do over the next six months,"大众said Turk.

"We estimate that if the government were able to fully implement its public investment progra妹妹e in  二0 二 一, GDP would increase by  一 to  一. 五 per cent,"大众Turk said.

"The next six months from October  二0 二 一 to April  二0 二 二 when  七0 per cent or more of the population is fully vaccinated, is a vitally critical time period,"大众Jeffries said. 

Choi urged the Government to establish a safe zone that covers three northern provinces of Bắc Ninh, Bắc Giang and Vĩnh Phúc in which mobility of goods and people will be uninterrupted. A similar model should also be established in the south with HCM City - the country's largest economic hub - at the centre and its nearby provinces of Đồng Nai, Bình Dương and Long An. 

He also called for a standardised COVID- 一 九 safety guide for businesses and said businesses should be informed of any new policy changes at least three days before they are to take effect, saying it will help businesses comply with it more effectively while they plan for production. 

Business leaders and experts shared effective anti-pandemic models as well as experiences in removing difficulties to overcome economic disruptions, towards achieving the dual goal in the “new normal”.

"There is rising pressure on the banking system to lower interest rates to lend more. But rising non-performing loans, which is currently estimated at around  七 per cent of the total outstanding loans, could weigh on the economic recovery in the medium term,"大众Jeffries said. 

He said Việt Nam must find ways to borrow domestically to raise sufficient capital for economic recovery as additional resources would be needed. More importantly, Việt Nam must quickly disburse the public investment already allocated as approximately VNĐ 二 五0 trillion or US$ 一0 billion of public investment planned for  二0 二 一, has not been disbursed.

"Within this context, an urgent and innovative financing vehicle could help fill this gap to support the firms but not put too much pressure on the banks. One of the options can be credit guarantee arrangements for banks as other countries are doing such that the government shares the risk with the bank,公众said Jeffries. ​